Netanyahu’s Political Survival on the Line as Israel Votes in Closely Watched Election

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a fight for political survival on Tuesday as Israelis cast ballots in an election widely viewed as a referendum on his leadership since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. local time, with voting continuing until 10 p.m. (2000 GMT). The vote is the first national election held on schedule in decades and the first since the deadliest day in the country’s history. Opinion polls published before the pre-election blackout showed a close race. Netanyahu’s Likud party and its right-wing and religious allies are projected to win roughly 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, is expected to secure a modest edge of a few seats. Neither side is projected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority. If neither can form a governing coalition, Netanyahu could remain as caretaker prime minister until another election is held next year. The Stakes and the Referendum For many Israelis, the election centers on accountability for the security failures that allowed the October 7 attacks, which killed about 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken. The subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and involving Iran have mobilized large parts of the population and deepened international isolation for Israel. Netanyahu has defended his government’s response and emphasized his security credentials, including ties with the United States. His opponents argue that the security failure and its aftermath require a change in leadership. Eisenkot, who served as IDF chief of staff from 2015 to 2019 under Netanyahu, leads the newly formed center-right Yashar party. His son was killed during the Gaza war. He has positioned himself as a security-focused alternative with support from both the right and the center. Other opposition figures include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. The opposition bloc is united primarily by the goal of replacing Netanyahu, though its members hold differing views on governance after the election. Netanyahu’s current coalition is the most right-wing in Israel’s history, relying on ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox partners, including parties led by figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir. Some of these partners have faced sanctions from Western countries over accusations of inciting violence against Palestinians. Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party has gained support in recent polls. Netanyahu has received an endorsement from U.S. President Donald Trump, who described him as a “great warrior prime minister.” Polling and Coalition Math Final pre-election polls from major Israeli broadcasters showed Eisenkot’s party leading individual party projections with around 22–23 seats, while Likud was expected to take roughly 19–21 seats, down from the 32 it won in the previous election. The broader blocs were projected in the low 50s for each side. Arab parties, which together poll around 14 seats, remain outside both main blocs and could influence post-election negotiations. Israel’s proportional system means no single party has ever won a majority on its own. The president typically tasks the lawmaker most likely to assemble a 61-seat coalition with forming the government. That process can take weeks. In past cycles, Netanyahu has sometimes assembled coalitions even when his bloc finished weaker than expected. This time, both sides have drawn clear lines against partnering with the other. If no coalition is formed, a repeat election could be called as early as early 2027, with Netanyahu staying in place as caretaker. About 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote, including roughly 330,000 first-time voters. Election day is a national holiday. Exit polls are expected after polls close, with official results scheduled for publication in early November. Campaign Themes and Broader Context Security has dominated the campaign. Netanyahu has highlighted military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian targets, as well as his relationship with Washington. The opposition has focused on the October 7 intelligence and operational failures, ongoing hostilities, and questions of democratic norms and governance. Domestic issues including military conscription for ultra-Orthodox communities, the future of Gaza, and relations with regional partners have also featured. Netanyahu has served as prime minister for more than 19 years across multiple terms and is Israel’s longest-serving leader. He faces an ongoing corruption trial, which he has described as politically motivated. The election occurs against the backdrop of three years of multi-front conflict that began with the October 7 attacks. The outcome will shape decisions on national security policy, the status of Gaza, conscription, and Israel’s international relationships. Right-wing leaders within Netanyahu’s camp have expressed confidence in his ability to form a government. Opposition campaigners have spoken of a “new day” for the country. Analysts note that core support for Netanyahu remains substantial among roughly 30–40 percent of voters, even as broader blocs fall short of a majority. What to Watch Exit polls after polls close at 10 p.m. local time and early seat projections. Official results and the allocation of Knesset seats once counting is complete. Whether either bloc can assemble a 61-seat coalition and the identity of any kingmaker parties. The role of Arab parties in any negotiations. Any statements from Netanyahu, Eisenkot, or the president on government formation. The possibility of a caretaker government and a follow-up election in 2027 if talks fail. Israelis are voting on October 27 in the first national election since the October 7, 2023, attacks, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival at stake. Polls show a tight contest between his Likud-led right-wing bloc and an opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with neither projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The vote is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership through three years of multi-front conflict. If no coalition is formed, Netanyahu could remain as caretaker until another election is held. About 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote.