US-Iran Peace Deal Will Not Be Signed Tomorrow, Tehran Says — But Could Come Within Days

The world has been holding its breath. For days, signals from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad have pointed toward a historic agreement that could end the most dangerous conflict the Middle East has seen in decades — a war that began with the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and killed American service members across the region. On Saturday, June 13, 2026, those hopes were dealt a cautious but significant setback: Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran — the so-called Islamabad MOU — will not be signed on Sunday, June 14. "As for the exact timing of the memorandum's signing, we must wait," Baghaei told Iranian state broadcaster IRIB. "Although it will not happen tomorrow, the possibility that it could take place in the coming days cannot be ruled out. However, given the other side's inconsistency, we must remain cautious in making any statements about the process." It was a carefully worded statement — neither a collapse nor a confirmation — and it captures perfectly the fragile, volatile state of diplomacy between two nations that have spent the past three and a half months at war. The Road to This Moment To understand where things stand today, it helps to trace the extraordinary journey that brought the United States and Iran to the edge of a peace agreement. The 2026 Iran war began on February 28, when coordinated US and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, destroyed significant portions of Iran's nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile programme, and sent shockwaves across the globe. Iran responded with hundreds of missiles and drones targeting Israel, US military bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and across the region, and closed the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's traded oil passes — triggering an immediate spike in global energy prices. Negotiations began almost immediately, even as the fighting continued. Pakistan emerged as the key mediator — a role it has maintained throughout the conflict. A first ceasefire was brokered by Islamabad on April 8 and has been extended multiple times since. Talks between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have taken place across multiple venues, including Islamabad, where the current memorandum framework was drafted. Throughout the process, the two sides have moved closer — and then pulled back. In early June, Trump vowed to seize Iran's Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iranian crude oil exports. Then, on June 11, he abruptly cancelled scheduled strikes, citing progress in talks, and announced on Truth Social that he had "ended the war with Iran" and that a "great settlement" was imminent. He suggested Vice President JD Vance might attend a signing ceremony in Europe within days. Tehran's response was immediate and deflating. Baghaei told IRNA that reports of a finalized agreement were "merely speculation" and that Iran had not yet made a final decision on any deal. It was a now-familiar pattern in this conflict: Washington announces a breakthrough; Tehran walks it back. Where Things Stand on June 13 As of Saturday evening, the picture is genuinely mixed — and that ambiguity is itself significant. On the side of optimism: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said earlier on Saturday that finalisation of the deal was "likely expected in the next 24 hours" and that Pakistan was preparing for "an electronic signing of the peace deal immediately." Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has "never been closer," while cautioning media against speculating about its contents. Trump told Axios he still believes a deal could be signed over the weekend or by Monday. On the side of caution: Baghaei's statement on Saturday explicitly ruled out a Sunday signing. He cited "the other side's inconsistency" — a pointed reference to the whiplash of Trump cancelling strikes one day and threatening to seize oil infrastructure the next. Iran, he said, is in the "final stages of internal deliberations," and any agreement must first receive a final internal decision before a signing location or date can be confirmed. That internal deliberation process is itself complicated by Iran's current leadership situation. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — appointed on March 8 after his father's assassination — has not been seen in public since he was injured in the same strike that killed his father. Statements attributed to him have been delivered via state television or social media. US intelligence has been unable to visually confirm his whereabouts. The practical result is that the Iranian leadership that would need to authorise and sign any deal is fractured, distributed, and operating under conditions of extraordinary secrecy. What the Islamabad MOU Would Mean The stakes of a successful agreement cannot be overstated. At its core, the memorandum is expected to address several interconnected issues: a formal end to hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran; the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping; and — most critically — Iran's nuclear programme. The nuclear question is the hardest. Iran has refused to hand over its enriched uranium stockpiles, a demand the US has reportedly included as a condition. The EU Foreign Subsidies investigation into the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi — which together contributed approximately $24 billion to various regional initiatives tied to the conflict's resolution — adds another layer of complexity to the diplomatic picture. If the deal is signed, oil markets would respond immediately. Crude prices have already moved sharply in recent days — falling more than 3% on Friday after Trump's announcement of a "breakthrough," with futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both rising. Markets are pricing in the possibility of a deal, but the volatility reflects the uncertainty that Saturday's statement has reintroduced. The Wider Regional Picture The Iran war and its potential resolution have reshaped the Middle East in ways that will outlast whatever agreement is eventually reached — or not reached. Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones at neighbouring countries. Six members of the US Army Reserve were killed in a drone attack in Kuwait. A seventh service member died from injuries sustained in an attack in Saudi Arabia. Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani — himself Iranian-born — denounced the war in the strongest terms and called on all Muslim nations to demand its end. Russia has reportedly provided assistance to Iran in striking US forces in the region. Meanwhile, Europe watches the diplomatic process with its own concerns. The European Commission is investigating the deal under the EU's Foreign Subsidies Regulation, and UK regulators are conducting their own review of the financial architecture surrounding regional reconstruction. California Attorney General Rob Bonta — who has also been investigating the Paramount-Warner Bros. media merger — has made clear that American domestic politics are deeply entangled with the administration's foreign policy posture in this conflict. What Happens Next The question now is whether the delay announced on Saturday represents a genuine obstacle or merely a procedural pause. Baghaei's language — "it could happen in the coming days" — suggests the deal is still very much alive. Iran's reluctance to confirm a date while citing American "inconsistency" also suggests Tehran is using the delay as a negotiating tool, ensuring it does not appear to be rushing toward an agreement on Washington's timeline. Trump has set no new deadline. The extended ceasefire continues to hold. Pakistan remains actively engaged as mediator. And the world — markets, governments, millions of people living under the shadow of a war that has upended the global order — continues to wait. A deal that seemed hours away on Friday now looks like it may take days more. In a conflict that has already defied every prediction and deadline thrown at it, a few more days of uncertainty is entirely in character.