Stock Futures Rebound After AI Sell-Off as Meta, Tesla, and SpaceX Earnings Loom

Futures opened the week higher after a week that punished the AI trade, and the calendar that follows is the reason traders are willing to buy the dip before the open. Overnight into Monday, Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 1 percent or more in various snapshots, with some readings near 1.3 percent. S&P 500 futures gained roughly 0.5 to 0.8 percent. Dow futures were up about 0.5 percent. The move followed a week in which the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5 percent, ending a four-week winning streak, and the S&P 500 lost nearly 2 percent, its steepest weekly decline since late June. The Dow rose 0.7 percent. Chip and AI-hardware names led the damage. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index logged one of its longer losing streaks in years. Concerns about the cost of financing AI infrastructure, softer-than-hoped growth signals from frontier labs, and valuations that had already run were the stated reasons. The rebound is concentrated in the same names that sold off. It is a statement that some buyers want exposure before Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, and Netflix report, not a statement that the spending debate is settled. What Reports This Week Netflix reports after the close Tuesday. SpaceX reports Tuesday evening, its second quarterly update as a public company. Analysts expect SpaceX earnings around $0.14 a share on revenue near $12.8 billion to $12.9 billion. Tesla and Meta report after the close Wednesday. Tesla is expected to post earnings near $0.45 a share on revenue around $28 billion, slightly below the year-ago quarter on some estimates. Meta is expected to report earnings in the mid-$6 range on revenue around $63 billion. Those figures vary by data provider. The direction of the surprise, and the guidance, matter more than the consensus print. Meta is the hyperscaler test. Its 2026 capital-expenditure guide has been in the $130 billion to $145 billion range. Investors who sold last week were questioning whether that spending produces returns fast enough to justify the multiple. A revenue beat with a capex number that is merely repeated will not, by itself, end the debate. A revenue beat with any quantified contribution from newer AI products, or a capex comment that implies a peak, would. SpaceX is the other spending test: Starlink has been the profit line, the AI segment the investment line. Commentary on whether subscription cash can fund both the AI build and the launch program is the sentence that will move the stock and, by extension, the Musk complex that includes Tesla. What Last Week Actually Did The Nasdaq’s 4.5 percent weekly drop was the worst for the index since early June. It broke support levels that technical traders had been watching. Software and neocloud names were hit alongside chips. Reports that Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue, while higher than the prior quarter, raised questions about the pace of growth added to the pressure on anything priced for uninterrupted AI acceleration. CoreWeave, which finances data-center capacity with debt, was among the names that concentrated the fear. None of that is erased by a 1 percent futures bounce. A bounce of that size recovers a fraction of the week’s loss. It resets positioning into earnings. It does not restore the four-week streak. Oil eased in early Asian trading after President Trump waived portions of new Russia sanctions and tariffs, a move that could increase Russian fuel supplies. Stable or lower oil is a modest support for equities and a modest headwind for energy. It is not the driver of the Nasdaq futures move. The driver is the AI dip and the earnings calendar. Asian markets were mixed to lower overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi down more than 1 percent in early readings. The U.S. futures bounce was not a global risk-on signal. It was a U.S. tech-specific one. What Would Confirm or Kill the Rebound A strong Meta or SpaceX print on revenue and a credible path from capex to cash would give the bounce a fundamental basis and could pull chips and hardware with it. A weak print, or guidance that raises spending without raising the return timeline, would make Monday’s futures look like a trap. Tesla’s margins sit in the same session as Meta’s. A disappointment there would color the tape even if Meta is fine. Netflix is the consumer check: if households are still paying for streaming while tech multiples compress, the broader market has a separate support. If they are not, the week has two problems instead of one. The 39th anniversary of the 1987 crash falls in this window. It is a calendar coincidence, not a model. Retail sentiment was described as cautious. Institutional positioning into a heavy earnings week after a 4.5 percent Nasdaq week is the more relevant fact. What to Watch Whether the futures gains hold through the cash open. SpaceX and Netflix on Tuesday, especially SpaceX’s AI revenue versus capex. Meta and Tesla on Wednesday, especially Meta’s capex guide and any AI revenue line. Semiconductor reaction to those prints, given last week’s damage. Any further move in oil after the Russia sanctions waiver. Stock futures rebounded after the AI sell-off, with Nasdaq futures up about 1 percent or more and S&P futures up roughly half a percent to 0.8 percent. The Nasdaq had fallen 4.5 percent the prior week. Meta, Tesla, and SpaceX report in the next three sessions. The bounce is buyers stepping in before the numbers. The numbers decide whether they were early or wrong.