Solar Power Set to Surpass Nuclear Globally in 2026, Reaching 10% of World Electricity

Solar power is reportedly set to surpass nuclear energy as a source of global electricity generation in 2026 while rising to approximately 10% of the world’s electricity supply for the first time. Data from the energy think tank Ember, analyzed in recent reporting including by the BBC, indicate that solar generation already edged ahead of nuclear on an annual basis in 2025 and has widened its lead through 2026. Nuclear output has stayed roughly constant since 2000, while solar has expanded dramatically over the same period. A decade ago solar contributed about 1% of global electricity. Projections for 2026 place it near 10%. Ember co-founder Dave Jones has described solar generating more electricity than the world’s nuclear fleet as a striking statistical milestone. Multiple analyses of the same underlying data show solar producing roughly 13% more electricity than nuclear over the 12 months through September 2026. How the Crossing Occurred Global solar capacity and generation have grown far faster than most earlier forecasts anticipated. In 2025, solar met a large share of the increase in worldwide electricity demand and became the fastest-growing source of new generation. Module prices fell sharply in 2023 and 2024, with many panels now available well below $100 and expected to operate for 30–40 years with no fuel cost. Analysts have described current prices as exceptionally low relative to historical levels and to competing technologies. Nuclear capacity has expanded only modestly. Reports such as the World Nuclear Industry Status Report note that solar capacity rose by hundreds of gigawatts in 2025 while nuclear capacity increased by a few gigawatts at most, with operating nuclear capacity in some tallies declining slightly. Nuclear’s share of global electricity has fallen over longer periods and stood near multi-decade lows in recent data. Monthly comparisons showed solar or wind individually exceeding nuclear generation for extended stretches beginning in spring 2025. Drivers of Solar’s Rise Cost declines are the primary factor. Chinese manufacturing scale has driven module prices to record lows, enabling rapid deployment in both large utility projects and distributed rooftop systems. In markets such as Australia, rooftop solar is now installed on a substantial fraction of homes. In several countries with high electricity costs or unreliable grids, residential and commercial buyers have financed installations themselves to reduce dependence on the grid. Battery storage is expanding alongside solar. Storage allows midday generation to be shifted into evening peak periods, improving the value of solar on grids and helping solar-plus-storage projects compete with new fossil-fuel generation in sunny regions. Grid integration challenges and the need for longer-duration storage remain real constraints, but falling battery costs are widening the set of hours and locations where solar can displace other sources. Policy support, falling balance-of-system costs, and strong demand growth in emerging markets have also contributed. Solar has continued to expand even in the face of trade measures in some jurisdictions. Mainstream energy-agency forecasts repeatedly underestimated both the speed of cost reduction and the pace of deployment; actual additions have outpaced linear projections. Implications for the Power System The shift changes the composition of low-carbon generation. Nuclear remains a large, firm, low-carbon source in many countries, but its growth has been limited by long construction times, high capital costs, and project delays. Solar’s variable output requires complementary resources—storage, transmission, demand flexibility, and other generation—to maintain reliability. As solar’s share rises toward and beyond 10%, system operators and policymakers face greater emphasis on these integration tools. Electricity demand continues to grow globally, driven by economic expansion, electrification, and new loads such as data centers. Solar has captured the majority of recent demand growth in several analyses, reducing the need for additional fossil generation in some markets. The technology’s modular nature allows projects of many sizes to come online quickly compared with large thermal plants. What to Watch Full-year 2026 generation data from Ember and other sources confirming the size of solar’s lead over nuclear. Continued trends in module and battery prices and their effect on project economics. Grid and storage investment levels needed to absorb higher solar shares without curtailment. Nuclear construction and operating performance outside major growth markets such as China. Policy changes affecting trade, permitting, or interconnection that could accelerate or slow solar deployment. The share of new electricity demand met by solar versus other sources in 2026 and 2027. Solar power is on track to surpass nuclear energy in global electricity generation in 2026 and to supply roughly 10% of the world’s electricity for the first time. Ember data show solar already ahead of nuclear in 2025 and extending that lead through 2026, after rising from about 1% of global power a decade earlier. Falling panel costs, rapid capacity additions, and growing battery storage have driven the expansion while nuclear output has remained largely flat. The milestone underscores solar’s role as a major low-carbon source even as grids adapt to higher shares of variable generation.